Blogging from the Highlands of Scotland until I return to the Murcia region of Spain in the Autumn for a month or so
'From fanaticism to barbarism is only one step' - Diderot

Thursday, 9 June 2016

Thoughts on the Pound and the Stockmarkets ahead of the EU Referendum

Firstly, the Pound FEX rates simply aren't "collapsing" either against the USD or the EUR in the way ‪the "Remain" side‬ said they would & according them "are"; the stockmarket is reasonably OK too with normal ups/downs. There are lots of economic problems in the world, of course, but my view is that the UK is performing tolerably well and certainly pretty favorably compared to our friends in the Eurozone. Check for yourself. Discount the "propaganda" which purports to tell you a Leave vote will result in disaster, being spewed out incessantly by "Remain".

The markets do not lie - the markets are ultimately interested in only one thing, ensuring that the "bets" made by market players result in net positive results for them (i.e. "profits").

The USD is being bolstered by the recent positive effects of fracking in the US for that country's domestic energy availability, the EUR is being maintained at a reasonably stable level only by the "magic"/skill of the current President of the ECB, Mario Draghi; it certainly isn't happening because of the underlying strength of most of the Eurozone economies, as even some of its major economies (Italy, Spain and France for example) are perilously close to disaster, even if a couple are perhaps headed more or less in the right direction.

However you plan to vote in the EU referendum being held in the UK on 23rd June, don't be scared into a choice to Remain based on this highly prejudiced (aka 'false') economic data. If Remain is your choice, fine, but don't pretend that whether we remain or ‪Leave‬ will result in "economic disaster" either way. As someone who broadly favours ‪Leave‬, I make no claims of "disaster" flowing from a decision to remain, if that's what happens. My view is that after a relatively brief negative "glitch" should we ‪decide to Leave‬, that in the longer term the UK, and the rest of the EU if it learns the correct lessons, will benefit.

My focus in the EU referendum has got little or nothing to do with "immigration", what it does have to do with is the democratic deficit which increasingly exists as a result of our EU membership, where few if any know the names of any of their local regional MEPs, who in any case have little real power - that resides in the European Commission, who aren't elected by anyone. People will refute that by saying it is the European Council (heads of government and ministers in different functions from all the EU member states - all "elected") which ultimately decides, which is partially true, but the reality is that it is the European Commission which sets the agenda for future changes, And anyone who understands anything about organisational dymanics knows it is those who control the agenda that controls the organisation, just as it is those who write the minutes of meetings in any organisation, if not properly monitored and corrected when they make a "mistake", who control what goes into the agenda for future meetings - that is the European Commission in the case of the EU. The European Parliament, where MEPs sit, is not able to introduce any new legislation, only debate what is put forward to it by the European Commission. Don't believe me? Well, in that case I suggest you find out how the protectionist cartel that is the EU really operates. It talks about being a free trade area, which it is internally, but it erects barriers against the outside world to protect inefficient EU domestc producers against more efficient external producers - this affects not only food prices paid by EU consumers, but most other aspects of the EU economy. It is unfortunately no accident that the EU is the poorest performing part of the world in economic terms (I really don't count Antarctica - it survives only as a result of massive state subsidies from those countries which maintain research bases there). For these and some other reasons I shall be voting Leave on 23rd June.

One of these additional reasons has to do with how the result could potentially affect the position of Scotland within the UK, to which I am very strongly committed. As a subsequent article will show, hopefully in the next day or so, this is yet another reason why I shall be voting Leave.

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